ESL Challenger League Season 52 Asia-Pacific Cup 1 · BO3
result vs prediction
NEXVOID#102 in the world · win 2:1series probability
38%62%
probability at match start · final 2:1
Alter Ego#120 in the world · loss 1:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
InfernoNEXVOID pick
64%67%
NEXVOID · 7 mapsnearly even -3%Alter Ego · 2 maps
Ancientpossible decider
78%67%
NEXVOID · 5 mapsedge NEXVOID +11%Alter Ego · 2 maps
Dust2Alter Ego pick
33%71%
NEXVOID · 2 mapsedge Alter Ego +38%Alter Ego · 3 maps
NukeAlter Ego ban
50%50%
NEXVOID · 2 mapsnearly even +0%Alter Ego · 2 maps
MirageNEXVOID ban
50%50%
NEXVOID · 0 mapsnearly even +0%Alter Ego · 2 maps
AnubisNEXVOID ban
50%40%
NEXVOID · 0 mapsedge NEXVOID +10%Alter Ego · 1 map
CacheAlter Ego ban
40%50%
NEXVOID · 1 mapedge Alter Ego +10%Alter Ego · 0 maps
Most likely veto scenario
1. BanNEXVOID remove Mirage
2. BanAlter Ego remove Cache
3. PickNEXVOID take Inferno
4. PickAlter Ego take Dust2
5. BanAlter Ego remove Nuke
6. BanNEXVOID remove Anubis
DeciderAncient (78% / 67%)
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Dust2prediction correct7:13
NEXVOID 15%Alter Ego 85%
The model gave 85% on Alter Ego — the map was taken by Alter Ego.
Infernoprediction missed13:5
NEXVOID 50%Alter Ego 50%
The model gave 50% on Alter Ego — the map was taken by NEXVOID.
Ancientprediction correct13:6
NEXVOID 64%Alter Ego 36%
The model gave 64% on NEXVOID — the map was taken by NEXVOID.
Model check result
Model favoriteAlter Ego · 62%
Series resultNEXVOID 2:1
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by map2 of 3