ESL Challenger League Season 52 Asia-Pacific Cup 1 · BO3
result vs prediction
Nas#189 in the world · win 2:0series probability
54%46%
probability at match start · final 2:0
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
AncientNas ban
33%40%
Nas · 2 mapsedge Banzai +7%Banzai · 1 map
NukeBanzai pick
50%50%
Nas · 2 mapsnearly even +0%Banzai · 0 maps
AnubisNas pick
50%40%
Nas · 0 mapsedge Nas +10%Banzai · 1 map
Dust2Banzai ban
40%50%
Nas · 1 mapedge Banzai +10%Banzai · 0 maps
Most likely veto scenario
1. BanNas remove Ancient
2. BanBanzai remove Dust2
3. PickNas take Anubis
4. PickBanzai take Nuke
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Dust2prediction missed13:2
Nas 43%Banzai 57%
The model gave 57% on Banzai — the map was taken by Nas.
Ancientprediction missed22:19
Nas 40%Banzai 60%
The model gave 60% on Banzai — the map was taken by Nas.
Model check result
Model favoriteNas · 54%
Series resultNas 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by map0 of 2