ESL Challenger League Season 52 Asia-Pacific Cup 1 · BO3
result vs prediction
NSNwin 2:0series probability
50%50%
probability at match start · final 2:0
QuantumXloss 0:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
AncientNSN pick
40%40%
NSN · 1 mapnearly even +0%QuantumX · 1 map
Dust2QuantumX ban
50%40%
NSN · 0 mapsedge NSN +10%QuantumX · 1 map
InfernoNSN ban
40%50%
NSN · 1 mapedge QuantumX +10%QuantumX · 0 maps
Most likely veto scenario
1. BanNSN remove Inferno
2. BanQuantumX remove Dust2
3. PickNSN take Ancient
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Dust2prediction correct13:9
NSN 63%QuantumX 37%
The model gave 63% on NSN — the map was taken by NSN.
Ancientprediction missed13:7
NSN 47%QuantumX 53%
The model gave 53% on QuantumX — the map was taken by NSN.
Model check result
Model favoriteNSN · 50%
Series resultNSN 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by map1 of 2