ESL Challenger League Season 52 Asia-Pacific Cup 1 · BO3
result vs prediction
Haunted House#236 in the world · loss 0:2series probability
45%55%
probability at match start · final 0:2
5star#35 in the world · win 2:0The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
Ancient5star ban
50%25%
Haunted House · 0 mapsedge Haunted House +25%5star · 8 maps
InfernoHaunted House ban
50%45%
Haunted House · 0 mapsedge Haunted House +5%5star · 7 maps
Nuke5star pick
40%56%
Haunted House · 1 mapedge 5star +16%5star · 5 maps
CacheHaunted House ban
50%56%
Haunted House · 0 mapsedge 5star +6%5star · 5 maps
MirageHaunted House pick
60%57%
Haunted House · 1 mapnearly even +3%5star · 3 maps
Anubispossible decider
50%60%
Haunted House · 0 mapsedge 5star +10%5star · 1 map
Dust25star ban
40%50%
Haunted House · 1 mapedge 5star +10%5star · 0 maps
Most likely veto scenario
1. BanHaunted House remove Cache
2. Ban5star remove Dust2
3. PickHaunted House take Mirage
4. Pick5star take Nuke
5. Ban5star remove Ancient
6. BanHaunted House remove Inferno
DeciderAnubis (50% / 60%)
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Mirageprediction missed6:13
Haunted House 56%5star 44%
The model gave 56% on Haunted House — the map was taken by 5star.
Nukeprediction correct8:13
Haunted House 32%5star 68%
The model gave 68% on 5star — the map was taken by 5star.
Model check result
Model favorite5star · 55%
Series result5star 0:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by map1 of 2