ESL Challenger League Season 52 South America Cup 1 · BO3
result vs prediction
Fluxo#56 in the world · win 2:0series probability
78%22%
probability at match start · final 2:0
Keyd Stars#155 in the world · loss 0:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
NukeFluxo pick
64%36%
Fluxo · 18 mapsedge Fluxo +28%Keyd Stars · 7 maps
MirageKeyd Stars pick
67%56%
Fluxo · 8 mapsedge Fluxo +11%Keyd Stars · 14 maps
Dust2possible decider
53%40%
Fluxo · 13 mapsedge Fluxo +13%Keyd Stars · 6 maps
AncientFluxo ban
40%55%
Fluxo · 1 mapedge Keyd Stars +15%Keyd Stars · 16 maps
InfernoKeyd Stars ban
50%38%
Fluxo · 10 mapsedge Fluxo +12%Keyd Stars · 4 maps
AnubisFluxo ban
45%67%
Fluxo · 7 mapsedge Keyd Stars +22%Keyd Stars · 5 maps
CacheKeyd Stars ban
56%40%
Fluxo · 5 mapsedge Fluxo +16%Keyd Stars · 1 map
Most likely veto scenario
1. BanFluxo remove Ancient
2. BanKeyd Stars remove Cache
3. PickFluxo take Nuke
4. PickKeyd Stars take Mirage
5. BanKeyd Stars remove Inferno
6. BanFluxo remove Anubis
DeciderDust2 (53% / 40%)
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Mirageprediction correct13:4
Fluxo 59%Keyd Stars 41%
The model gave 59% on Fluxo — the map was taken by Fluxo.
Nukeprediction correct16:12
Fluxo 78%Keyd Stars 22%
The model gave 78% on Fluxo — the map was taken by Fluxo.
Model check result
Model favoriteFluxo · 78%
Series resultFluxo 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by map2 of 2