ESL Challenger League Season 52 South America Cup 1 · BO3
result vs predictionseries probability
39%61%
probability at match start · final 0:2
Yawara#156 in the world · win 2:0The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
MirageYawara pick
50%53%
PEAK · 0 mapsnearly even -3%Yawara · 13 maps
AncientPEAK pick
50%43%
PEAK · 0 mapsedge PEAK +7%Yawara · 10 maps
Dust2PEAK ban
50%58%
PEAK · 0 mapsedge Yawara +8%Yawara · 8 maps
AnubisYawara ban
50%50%
PEAK · 0 mapsnearly even +0%Yawara · 4 maps
Infernopossible decider
40%57%
PEAK · 1 mapedge Yawara +17%Yawara · 3 maps
CacheYawara ban
50%40%
PEAK · 0 mapsedge PEAK +10%Yawara · 1 map
DefaultPEAK ban
50%60%
PEAK · 0 mapsedge Yawara +10%Yawara · 1 map
Most likely veto scenario
1. BanPEAK remove Dust2
2. BanYawara remove Cache
3. PickPEAK take Ancient
4. PickYawara take Mirage
5. BanYawara remove Anubis
6. BanPEAK remove Default
DeciderInferno (40% / 57%)
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Ancientprediction missed6:13
PEAK 60%Yawara 40%
The model gave 60% on PEAK — the map was taken by Yawara.
Dust2prediction correct5:13
PEAK 39%Yawara 61%
The model gave 61% on Yawara — the map was taken by Yawara.
Model check result
Model favoriteYawara · 61%
Series resultYawara 0:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by map1 of 2