ESL Challenger League Season 52 South America Cup 1 · BO3
result vs predictionseries probability
33%67%
probability at match start · final 2:0
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
AncientBORRACHEIROS pick
29%58%
MEIA NOITE · 3 mapsedge BORRACHEIROS +29%BORRACHEIROS · 8 maps
MirageMEIA NOITE pick
40%44%
MEIA NOITE · 6 mapsnearly even -4%BORRACHEIROS · 5 maps
Dust2MEIA NOITE ban
50%63%
MEIA NOITE · 4 mapsedge BORRACHEIROS +13%BORRACHEIROS · 4 maps
InfernoBORRACHEIROS ban
67%33%
MEIA NOITE · 2 mapsedge MEIA NOITE +34%BORRACHEIROS · 5 maps
AnubisMEIA NOITE ban
50%50%
MEIA NOITE · 0 mapsnearly even +0%BORRACHEIROS · 4 maps
Defaultpossible decider
60%71%
MEIA NOITE · 1 mapedge BORRACHEIROS +11%BORRACHEIROS · 3 maps
NukeBORRACHEIROS ban
40%29%
MEIA NOITE · 1 mapedge MEIA NOITE +11%BORRACHEIROS · 3 maps
Most likely veto scenario
1. BanMEIA NOITE remove Anubis
2. BanBORRACHEIROS remove Nuke
3. PickMEIA NOITE take Mirage
4. PickBORRACHEIROS take Ancient
5. BanBORRACHEIROS remove Inferno
6. BanMEIA NOITE remove Dust2
DeciderDefault (60% / 71%)
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Ancientprediction missed13:11
MEIA NOITE 20%BORRACHEIROS 80%
The model gave 80% on BORRACHEIROS — the map was taken by MEIA NOITE.
Mirageprediction missed13:8
MEIA NOITE 48%BORRACHEIROS 52%
The model gave 52% on BORRACHEIROS — the map was taken by MEIA NOITE.
Model check result
Model favoriteBORRACHEIROS · 67%
Series resultMEIA NOITE 2:0
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by map0 of 2