ESL Challenger League Season 52 South America Cup 1 · BO3
pre-match prediction
Turma do Pagodeseries probability
40%60%
model: map winrate + form + head-to-head
ALKA#121 in the worldBefore the match the model relies on historical data: each team's winrate on every map in the pool over 3 months, current form and head-to-head. Once the veto happens, the prediction is recalculated for the real map pool.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
Dust2ALKA pick
40%59%
Turma do Pagode · 1 mapedge ALKA +19%ALKA · 13 maps
Ancientpossible decider
40%53%
Turma do Pagode · 1 mapedge ALKA +13%ALKA · 11 maps
InfernoTurma do Pagode ban
50%64%
Turma do Pagode · 0 mapsedge ALKA +14%ALKA · 7 maps
MirageTurma do Pagode ban
50%55%
Turma do Pagode · 0 mapsedge ALKA +5%ALKA · 7 maps
NukeALKA ban
50%50%
Turma do Pagode · 0 mapsnearly even +0%ALKA · 6 maps
CacheALKA ban
50%56%
Turma do Pagode · 0 mapsedge ALKA +6%ALKA · 5 maps
DefaultTurma do Pagode pick
50%40%
Turma do Pagode · 0 mapsedge Turma do Pagode +10%ALKA · 1 map
Most likely veto scenario
1. BanTurma do Pagode remove Mirage
2. BanALKA remove Nuke
3. PickTurma do Pagode take Default
4. PickALKA take Dust2
5. BanALKA remove Cache
6. BanTurma do Pagode remove Inferno
DeciderAncient (40% / 53%)