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ESL Challenger League Season 52 South America Cup 1 · BO3
result vs prediction
paiN Academy#286 in the world · loss 1:2
series probability
36%64%
probability at match start · final 1:2
Isurus#186 in the world · win 2:1
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
Dust2Isurus pick
40%64%
paiN Academy · 11 mapsedge Isurus +24%Isurus · 10 maps
MiragepaiN Academy pick
40%55%
paiN Academy · 11 mapsedge Isurus +15%Isurus · 7 maps
NukeIsurus ban
38%42%
paiN Academy · 9 mapsnearly even -4%Isurus · 8 maps
Cachepossible decider
42%56%
paiN Academy · 8 mapsedge Isurus +14%Isurus · 5 maps
InfernopaiN Academy ban
33%50%
paiN Academy · 5 mapsedge Isurus +17%Isurus · 8 maps
AnubisIsurus ban
55%50%
paiN Academy · 7 mapsedge paiN Academy +5%Isurus · 0 maps
AncientpaiN Academy ban
40%25%
paiN Academy · 1 mapedge paiN Academy +15%Isurus · 4 maps
Most likely veto scenario
1. BanpaiN Academy remove Ancient
2. BanIsurus remove Anubis
3. PickpaiN Academy take Mirage
4. PickIsurus take Dust2
5. BanIsurus remove Nuke
6. BanpaiN Academy remove Inferno
DeciderCache (42% / 56%)
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Mirageprediction missed13:6
paiN Academy 39%Isurus 61%
The model gave 61% on Isurus — the map was taken by paiN Academy.
Infernoprediction correct10:13
paiN Academy 31%Isurus 69%
The model gave 69% on Isurus — the map was taken by Isurus.
Cacheprediction correct10:13
paiN Academy 36%Isurus 64%
The model gave 64% on Isurus — the map was taken by Isurus.
Model check result
Model favoriteIsurus · 64%
Series resultIsurus 1:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by map2 of 3