ESL Challenger League Season 52 North America Cup 1 · BO3
result vs predictionseries probability
41%59%
probability at match start · final 2:1
Club 333#229 in the world · loss 1:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
Dust2New Legends pick
40%46%
New Legends · 1 mapedge Club 333 +6%Club 333 · 9 maps
InfernoNew Legends ban
50%62%
New Legends · 0 mapsedge Club 333 +12%Club 333 · 9 maps
MirageClub 333 pick
50%40%
New Legends · 0 mapsedge New Legends +10%Club 333 · 6 maps
NukeClub 333 ban
50%44%
New Legends · 0 mapsedge New Legends +6%Club 333 · 5 maps
AncientClub 333 ban
40%50%
New Legends · 1 mapedge Club 333 +10%Club 333 · 0 maps
Most likely veto scenario
1. BanNew Legends remove Inferno
2. BanClub 333 remove Ancient
3. PickNew Legends take Dust2
4. PickClub 333 take Mirage
5. BanClub 333 remove Nuke
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Dust2prediction correct2:13
New Legends 47%Club 333 53%
The model gave 53% on Club 333 — the map was taken by Club 333.
Ancientprediction missed13:7
New Legends 37%Club 333 63%
The model gave 63% on Club 333 — the map was taken by New Legends.
Mirageprediction correct13:7
New Legends 60%Club 333 40%
The model gave 60% on New Legends — the map was taken by New Legends.
Model check result
Model favoriteClub 333 · 59%
Series resultNew Legends 2:1
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by map2 of 3