ESL Challenger League Season 52 Asia-Pacific Cup 1 · BO3
result vs prediction
Alter Ego#120 in the world · win 2:1series probability
51%49%
probability at match start · final 2:1
Kaleido#154 in the world · loss 1:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
AncientKaleido pick
57%60%
Alter Ego · 3 mapsnearly even -3%Kaleido · 6 maps
Dust2Alter Ego pick
75%43%
Alter Ego · 4 mapsedge Alter Ego +32%Kaleido · 3 maps
InfernoKaleido ban
57%38%
Alter Ego · 3 mapsedge Alter Ego +19%Kaleido · 4 maps
NukeKaleido ban
50%50%
Alter Ego · 2 mapsnearly even +0%Kaleido · 2 maps
Miragepossible decider
50%60%
Alter Ego · 2 mapsedge Kaleido +10%Kaleido · 1 map
CacheAlter Ego ban
50%33%
Alter Ego · 0 mapsedge Alter Ego +17%Kaleido · 2 maps
AnubisAlter Ego ban
40%50%
Alter Ego · 1 mapedge Kaleido +10%Kaleido · 0 maps
Most likely veto scenario
1. BanAlter Ego remove Cache
2. BanKaleido remove Nuke
3. PickAlter Ego take Dust2
4. PickKaleido take Ancient
5. BanKaleido remove Inferno
6. BanAlter Ego remove Anubis
DeciderMirage (50% / 60%)
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Dust2prediction missed10:13
Alter Ego 82%Kaleido 18%
The model gave 82% on Alter Ego — the map was taken by Kaleido.
Ancientprediction missed13:4
Alter Ego 44%Kaleido 56%
The model gave 56% on Kaleido — the map was taken by Alter Ego.
Cacheprediction correct13:7
Alter Ego 67%Kaleido 33%
The model gave 67% on Alter Ego — the map was taken by Alter Ego.
Model check result
Model favoriteAlter Ego · 51%
Series resultAlter Ego 2:1
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by map1 of 3