ESL Challenger League Season 52 South America Cup 1 · BO3
result vs prediction
Yawara#156 in the world · loss 0:2series probability
44%56%
probability at match start · final 0:2
ODDIK#140 in the world · win 2:0The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
MirageYawara pick
53%70%
Yawara · 13 mapsedge ODDIK +17%ODDIK · 6 maps
Dust2ODDIK pick
62%50%
Yawara · 9 mapsedge Yawara +12%ODDIK · 8 maps
Ancientpossible decider
47%50%
Yawara · 11 mapsnearly even -3%ODDIK · 4 maps
AnubisYawara ban
50%67%
Yawara · 4 mapsedge ODDIK +17%ODDIK · 2 maps
CacheODDIK ban
40%50%
Yawara · 1 mapedge ODDIK +10%ODDIK · 4 maps
InfernoODDIK ban
57%50%
Yawara · 3 mapsedge Yawara +7%ODDIK · 0 maps
NukeYawara ban
50%71%
Yawara · 0 mapsedge ODDIK +21%ODDIK · 3 maps
Most likely veto scenario
1. BanYawara remove Nuke
2. BanODDIK remove Inferno
3. PickYawara take Mirage
4. PickODDIK take Dust2
5. BanODDIK remove Cache
6. BanYawara remove Anubis
DeciderAncient (47% / 50%)
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Anubisprediction correct4:13
Yawara 31%ODDIK 69%
The model gave 69% on ODDIK — the map was taken by ODDIK.
Mirageprediction correct7:13
Yawara 35%ODDIK 65%
The model gave 65% on ODDIK — the map was taken by ODDIK.
Model check result
Model favoriteODDIK · 56%
Series resultODDIK 0:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by map2 of 2