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ESL Challenger League Season 52 South America Cup 1 · BO3
result vs prediction
ex-MIBR Academywin 2:0
series probability
50%50%
probability at match start · final 2:0
MEIA NOITE#230 in the world · loss 0:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
MirageMEIA NOITE pick
40%45%
ex-MIBR Academy · 1 mapedge MEIA NOITE +5%MEIA NOITE · 7 maps
Dust2MEIA NOITE ban
50%50%
ex-MIBR Academy · 2 mapsnearly even +0%MEIA NOITE · 4 maps
Ancientex-MIBR Academy pick
60%38%
ex-MIBR Academy · 1 mapedge ex-MIBR Academy +22%MEIA NOITE · 4 maps
Cacheex-MIBR Academy ban
50%43%
ex-MIBR Academy · 0 mapsedge ex-MIBR Academy +7%MEIA NOITE · 3 maps
Defaultpossible decider
50%67%
ex-MIBR Academy · 0 mapsedge MEIA NOITE +17%MEIA NOITE · 2 maps
Infernoex-MIBR Academy ban
50%67%
ex-MIBR Academy · 0 mapsedge MEIA NOITE +17%MEIA NOITE · 2 maps
NukeMEIA NOITE ban
50%40%
ex-MIBR Academy · 0 mapsedge ex-MIBR Academy +10%MEIA NOITE · 1 map
Most likely veto scenario
1. Banex-MIBR Academy remove Inferno
2. BanMEIA NOITE remove Nuke
3. Pickex-MIBR Academy take Ancient
4. PickMEIA NOITE take Mirage
5. BanMEIA NOITE remove Dust2
6. Banex-MIBR Academy remove Cache
DeciderDefault (50% / 67%)
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Ancientprediction correct13:5
ex-MIBR Academy 74%MEIA NOITE 26%
The model gave 74% on ex-MIBR Academy — the map was taken by ex-MIBR Academy.
Mirageprediction missed16:13
ex-MIBR Academy 42%MEIA NOITE 58%
The model gave 58% on MEIA NOITE — the map was taken by ex-MIBR Academy.
Model check result
Model favoriteex-MIBR Academy · 50%
Series resultex-MIBR Academy 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by map1 of 2