ESL Challenger League Season 52 North America Cup 1 · BO3
result vs prediction
Iowa Stormboar#201 in the world · win 2:0series probability
38%62%
probability at match start · final 2:0
Villainous#142 in the world · loss 0:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
InfernoIowa Stormboar ban
29%55%
Iowa Stormboar · 3 mapsedge Villainous +26%Villainous · 7 maps
NukeIowa Stormboar pick
50%60%
Iowa Stormboar · 8 mapsedge Villainous +10%Villainous · 1 map
AnubisVillainous pick
50%60%
Iowa Stormboar · 2 mapsedge Villainous +10%Villainous · 6 maps
Miragepossible decider
44%43%
Iowa Stormboar · 5 mapsnearly even +1%Villainous · 3 maps
Dust2Villainous ban
50%40%
Iowa Stormboar · 4 mapsedge Iowa Stormboar +10%Villainous · 1 map
AncientVillainous ban
67%40%
Iowa Stormboar · 2 mapsedge Iowa Stormboar +27%Villainous · 1 map
CacheIowa Stormboar ban
50%60%
Iowa Stormboar · 0 mapsedge Villainous +10%Villainous · 1 map
Most likely veto scenario
1. BanIowa Stormboar remove Inferno
2. BanVillainous remove Dust2
3. PickIowa Stormboar take Nuke
4. PickVillainous take Anubis
5. BanVillainous remove Ancient
6. BanIowa Stormboar remove Cache
DeciderMirage (44% / 43%)
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Infernoprediction missed13:7
Iowa Stormboar 27%Villainous 73%
The model gave 73% on Villainous — the map was taken by Iowa Stormboar.
Ancientprediction correct16:13
Iowa Stormboar 73%Villainous 27%
The model gave 73% on Iowa Stormboar — the map was taken by Iowa Stormboar.
Model check result
Model favoriteVillainous · 62%
Series resultIowa Stormboar 2:0
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by map1 of 2