ESL Challenger League Season 52 North America Cup 1 · BO3
result vs predictionseries probability
55%45%
probability at match start · final 0:2
Zomblers#197 in the world · win 2:0The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
MirageZomblers ban
50%60%
FarmVille · 2 mapsedge Zomblers +10%Zomblers · 1 map
Dust2FarmVille pick
60%40%
FarmVille · 1 mapedge FarmVille +20%Zomblers · 1 map
InfernoZomblers pick
40%60%
FarmVille · 1 mapedge Zomblers +20%Zomblers · 1 map
NukeFarmVille ban
50%50%
FarmVille · 0 mapsnearly even +0%Zomblers · 2 maps
CacheZomblers ban
40%50%
FarmVille · 1 mapedge Zomblers +10%Zomblers · 0 maps
Most likely veto scenario
1. BanFarmVille remove Nuke
2. BanZomblers remove Cache
3. PickFarmVille take Dust2
4. PickZomblers take Inferno
5. BanZomblers remove Mirage
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Dust2prediction missed11:13
FarmVille 72%Zomblers 28%
The model gave 72% on FarmVille — the map was taken by Zomblers.
Infernoprediction correct11:13
FarmVille 28%Zomblers 72%
The model gave 72% on Zomblers — the map was taken by Zomblers.
Model check result
Model favoriteFarmVille · 55%
Series resultZomblers 0:2
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by map1 of 2