?
arrow_backBack to match
ESL Challenger League Season 52 Asia-Pacific Cup 1 · BO3
result vs prediction
The Huns#123 in the world · loss 1:2
series probability
40%60%
probability at match start · final 1:2
Rare Atom#105 in the world · win 2:1
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
Dust2possible decider
50%57%
The Huns · 10 mapsedge Rare Atom +7%Rare Atom · 3 maps
NukeRare Atom ban
60%50%
The Huns · 11 mapsedge The Huns +10%Rare Atom · 0 maps
AncientThe Huns pick
64%57%
The Huns · 7 mapsedge The Huns +7%Rare Atom · 3 maps
InfernoThe Huns ban
33%50%
The Huns · 5 mapsedge Rare Atom +17%Rare Atom · 2 maps
CacheRare Atom pick
50%75%
The Huns · 2 mapsedge Rare Atom +25%Rare Atom · 4 maps
MirageRare Atom ban
43%60%
The Huns · 3 mapsedge Rare Atom +17%Rare Atom · 1 map
AnubisThe Huns ban
50%60%
The Huns · 0 mapsedge Rare Atom +10%Rare Atom · 1 map
Most likely veto scenario
1. BanThe Huns remove Anubis
2. BanRare Atom remove Nuke
3. PickThe Huns take Ancient
4. PickRare Atom take Cache
5. BanRare Atom remove Mirage
6. BanThe Huns remove Inferno
DeciderDust2 (50% / 57%)
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Cacheprediction missed13:6
The Huns 23%Rare Atom 77%
The model gave 77% on Rare Atom — the map was taken by The Huns.
Dust2prediction correct14:16
The Huns 46%Rare Atom 54%
The model gave 54% on Rare Atom — the map was taken by Rare Atom.
Mirageprediction correct19:22
The Huns 33%Rare Atom 67%
The model gave 67% on Rare Atom — the map was taken by Rare Atom.
Model check result
Model favoriteRare Atom · 60%
Series resultRare Atom 1:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by map2 of 3