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ESL Challenger League Season 52 Asia-Pacific Cup 1 · BO3
result vs prediction
Chinggis Warriors#116 in the world · loss 1:2
series probability
37%63%
probability at match start · final 1:2
NEXVOID#102 in the world · win 2:1
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
InfernoChinggis Warriors pick
50%67%
Chinggis Warriors · 4 mapsedge NEXVOID +17%NEXVOID · 8 maps
AncientChinggis Warriors ban
40%80%
Chinggis Warriors · 1 mapedge NEXVOID +40%NEXVOID · 6 maps
Dust2Chinggis Warriors ban
38%29%
Chinggis Warriors · 4 mapsedge Chinggis Warriors +9%NEXVOID · 3 maps
NukeNEXVOID pick
44%50%
Chinggis Warriors · 5 mapsedge NEXVOID +6%NEXVOID · 2 maps
CacheNEXVOID ban
40%40%
Chinggis Warriors · 1 mapnearly even +0%NEXVOID · 1 map
MirageNEXVOID ban
50%50%
Chinggis Warriors · 2 mapsnearly even +0%NEXVOID · 0 maps
Most likely veto scenario
1. BanChinggis Warriors remove Ancient
2. BanNEXVOID remove Mirage
3. PickChinggis Warriors take Inferno
4. PickNEXVOID take Nuke
5. BanNEXVOID remove Cache
6. BanChinggis Warriors remove Dust2
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Nukeprediction missed16:13
Chinggis Warriors 47%NEXVOID 53%
The model gave 53% on NEXVOID — the map was taken by Chinggis Warriors.
Anubisprediction correct8:13
Chinggis Warriors 47%NEXVOID 53%
The model gave 53% on NEXVOID — the map was taken by NEXVOID.
Ancientprediction correct9:13
Chinggis Warriors 14%NEXVOID 86%
The model gave 86% on NEXVOID — the map was taken by NEXVOID.
Model check result
Model favoriteNEXVOID · 63%
Series resultNEXVOID 1:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by map2 of 3