ESL Challenger League Season 52 Asia-Pacific Cup 1 · BO3
result vs prediction
Vitalem Aerem#180 in the world · loss 0:2series probability
42%58%
probability at match start · final 0:2
Just Swing#158 in the world · win 2:0The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
AncientVitalem Aerem pick
57%33%
Vitalem Aerem · 3 mapsedge Vitalem Aerem +24%Just Swing · 2 maps
Dust2Just Swing ban
63%40%
Vitalem Aerem · 4 mapsedge Vitalem Aerem +23%Just Swing · 1 map
InfernoVitalem Aerem ban
43%67%
Vitalem Aerem · 3 mapsedge Just Swing +24%Just Swing · 2 maps
NukeJust Swing pick
43%50%
Vitalem Aerem · 3 mapsedge Just Swing +7%Just Swing · 0 maps
CacheVitalem Aerem ban
50%67%
Vitalem Aerem · 0 mapsedge Just Swing +17%Just Swing · 2 maps
AnubisJust Swing ban
60%50%
Vitalem Aerem · 1 mapedge Vitalem Aerem +10%Just Swing · 0 maps
Most likely veto scenario
1. BanVitalem Aerem remove Cache
2. BanJust Swing remove Dust2
3. PickVitalem Aerem take Ancient
4. PickJust Swing take Nuke
5. BanJust Swing remove Anubis
6. BanVitalem Aerem remove Inferno
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Nukeprediction correct10:13
Vitalem Aerem 40%Just Swing 60%
The model gave 60% on Just Swing — the map was taken by Just Swing.
Dust2prediction missed13:16
Vitalem Aerem 74%Just Swing 26%
The model gave 74% on Vitalem Aerem — the map was taken by Just Swing.
Model check result
Model favoriteJust Swing · 58%
Series resultJust Swing 0:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by map1 of 2