ESL Challenger League Season 52 South America Cup 1 · BO3
result vs prediction
Fluxo#56 in the world · loss 0:2series probability
52%48%
probability at match start · final 0:2
Galorys#68 in the world · win 2:0The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
NukeFluxo pick
65%71%
Fluxo · 19 mapsedge Galorys +6%Galorys · 3 maps
Dust2possible decider
53%40%
Fluxo · 13 mapsedge Fluxo +13%Galorys · 6 maps
AnubisGalorys pick
45%56%
Fluxo · 7 mapsedge Galorys +11%Galorys · 5 maps
AncientFluxo ban
40%71%
Fluxo · 1 mapedge Galorys +31%Galorys · 10 maps
InfernoGalorys ban
46%33%
Fluxo · 9 mapsedge Fluxo +13%Galorys · 2 maps
MirageGalorys ban
67%60%
Fluxo · 8 mapsedge Fluxo +7%Galorys · 1 map
CacheFluxo ban
56%50%
Fluxo · 5 mapsedge Fluxo +6%Galorys · 2 maps
Most likely veto scenario
1. BanFluxo remove Ancient
2. BanGalorys remove Mirage
3. PickFluxo take Nuke
4. PickGalorys take Anubis
5. BanGalorys remove Inferno
6. BanFluxo remove Cache
DeciderDust2 (53% / 40%)
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Anubisprediction correct9:13
Fluxo 37%Galorys 63%
The model gave 63% on Galorys — the map was taken by Galorys.
Nukeprediction correct7:13
Fluxo 46%Galorys 54%
The model gave 54% on Galorys — the map was taken by Galorys.
Model check result
Model favoriteFluxo · 52%
Series resultGalorys 0:2
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by map2 of 2