ESL Challenger League Season 52 South America Cup 1 · BO3
result vs prediction
ShindeN#77 in the world · loss 0:2series probability
46%54%
probability at match start · final 0:2
Imperial#51 in the world · win 2:0The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
MirageImperial pick
56%64%
ShindeN · 5 mapsedge Imperial +8%Imperial · 18 maps
InfernoShindeN pick
73%63%
ShindeN · 7 mapsedge ShindeN +10%Imperial · 15 maps
NukeShindeN ban
30%72%
ShindeN · 6 mapsedge Imperial +42%Imperial · 14 maps
Dust2Imperial ban
63%58%
ShindeN · 4 mapsedge ShindeN +5%Imperial · 8 maps
CacheShindeN ban
33%64%
ShindeN · 2 mapsedge Imperial +31%Imperial · 7 maps
AncientImperial ban
60%50%
ShindeN · 6 mapsedge ShindeN +10%Imperial · 0 maps
Overpasspossible decider
71%40%
ShindeN · 3 mapsedge ShindeN +31%Imperial · 1 map
Most likely veto scenario
1. BanShindeN remove Nuke
2. BanImperial remove Ancient
3. PickShindeN take Inferno
4. PickImperial take Mirage
5. BanImperial remove Dust2
6. BanShindeN remove Cache
DeciderOverpass (71% / 40%)
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Infernoprediction missed4:13
ShindeN 64%Imperial 36%
The model gave 64% on ShindeN — the map was taken by Imperial.
Cacheprediction correct7:13
ShindeN 20%Imperial 80%
The model gave 80% on Imperial — the map was taken by Imperial.
Model check result
Model favoriteImperial · 54%
Series resultImperial 0:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by map1 of 2