ESL Challenger League Season 52 South America Cup 1 · BO3
result vs prediction
ODDIK#140 in the world · loss 1:2series probability
67%33%
probability at match start · final 1:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
Dust2ODDIK pick
50%50%
ODDIK · 8 mapsnearly even +0%ex-MIBR Academy · 2 maps
MirageODDIK ban
75%50%
ODDIK · 8 mapsedge ODDIK +25%ex-MIBR Academy · 2 maps
AncientODDIK ban
50%67%
ODDIK · 4 mapsedge ex-MIBR Academy +17%ex-MIBR Academy · 2 maps
Cacheex-MIBR Academy ban
56%50%
ODDIK · 5 mapsedge ODDIK +6%ex-MIBR Academy · 0 maps
Anubisex-MIBR Academy pick
71%50%
ODDIK · 3 mapsedge ODDIK +21%ex-MIBR Academy · 0 maps
Nukeex-MIBR Academy ban
71%50%
ODDIK · 3 mapsedge ODDIK +21%ex-MIBR Academy · 0 maps
Most likely veto scenario
1. BanODDIK remove Ancient
2. Banex-MIBR Academy remove Cache
3. PickODDIK take Dust2
4. Pickex-MIBR Academy take Anubis
5. Banex-MIBR Academy remove Nuke
6. BanODDIK remove Mirage
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Nukeprediction correct13:8
ODDIK 69%ex-MIBR Academy 31%
The model gave 69% on ODDIK — the map was taken by ODDIK.
Anubisprediction missed9:13
ODDIK 74%ex-MIBR Academy 26%
The model gave 74% on ODDIK — the map was taken by ex-MIBR Academy.
Mirageprediction missed10:13
ODDIK 75%ex-MIBR Academy 25%
The model gave 75% on ODDIK — the map was taken by ex-MIBR Academy.
Model check result
Model favoriteODDIK · 67%
Series resultex-MIBR Academy 1:2
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by map1 of 3