ESL Challenger League Season 52 South America Cup 1 · BO3
result vs prediction
Turma do Pagode#91 in the world · loss 1:2series probability
23%77%
probability at match start · final 1:2
Isurus#186 in the world · win 2:1The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
Dust2Isurus pick
50%67%
Turma do Pagode · 2 mapsedge Isurus +17%Isurus · 11 maps
Infernopossible decider
40%57%
Turma do Pagode · 1 mapedge Isurus +17%Isurus · 10 maps
MirageIsurus ban
60%50%
Turma do Pagode · 1 mapedge Turma do Pagode +10%Isurus · 8 maps
AncientIsurus ban
57%22%
Turma do Pagode · 3 mapsedge Turma do Pagode +35%Isurus · 5 maps
NukeTurma do Pagode ban
50%42%
Turma do Pagode · 0 mapsedge Turma do Pagode +8%Isurus · 8 maps
CacheTurma do Pagode ban
50%60%
Turma do Pagode · 0 mapsedge Isurus +10%Isurus · 6 maps
DefaultTurma do Pagode pick
50%67%
Turma do Pagode · 0 mapsedge Isurus +17%Isurus · 2 maps
Most likely veto scenario
1. BanTurma do Pagode remove Cache
2. BanIsurus remove Ancient
3. PickTurma do Pagode take Default
4. PickIsurus take Dust2
5. BanIsurus remove Mirage
6. BanTurma do Pagode remove Nuke
DeciderInferno (40% / 57%)
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Infernoprediction correct9:13
Turma do Pagode 31%Isurus 69%
The model gave 69% on Isurus — the map was taken by Isurus.
Ancientprediction correct13:6
Turma do Pagode 84%Isurus 16%
The model gave 84% on Turma do Pagode — the map was taken by Turma do Pagode.
Dust2prediction correct4:13
Turma do Pagode 33%Isurus 67%
The model gave 67% on Isurus — the map was taken by Isurus.
Model check result
Model favoriteIsurus · 77%
Series resultIsurus 1:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by map3 of 3