ESL Challenger League Season 52 North America Cup 1 · BO3
result vs prediction
Marsborne#82 in the world · win 2:0series probability
48%52%
probability at match start · final 2:0
Chicken Coop#151 in the world · loss 0:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
InfernoMarsborne pick
75%62%
Marsborne · 8 mapsedge Marsborne +13%Chicken Coop · 9 maps
Ancientpossible decider
69%75%
Marsborne · 9 mapsedge Chicken Coop +6%Chicken Coop · 4 maps
OverpassChicken Coop pick
50%67%
Marsborne · 4 mapsedge Chicken Coop +17%Chicken Coop · 5 maps
Dust2Marsborne ban
50%60%
Marsborne · 2 mapsedge Chicken Coop +10%Chicken Coop · 6 maps
MirageChicken Coop ban
64%60%
Marsborne · 7 mapsnearly even +4%Chicken Coop · 1 map
AnubisChicken Coop ban
63%40%
Marsborne · 4 mapsedge Marsborne +23%Chicken Coop · 1 map
NukeMarsborne ban
50%57%
Marsborne · 2 mapsedge Chicken Coop +7%Chicken Coop · 3 maps
Most likely veto scenario
1. BanMarsborne remove Nuke
2. BanChicken Coop remove Anubis
3. PickMarsborne take Inferno
4. PickChicken Coop take Overpass
5. BanChicken Coop remove Mirage
6. BanMarsborne remove Dust2
DeciderAncient (69% / 75%)
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Ancientprediction missed13:3
Marsborne 46%Chicken Coop 54%
The model gave 54% on Chicken Coop — the map was taken by Marsborne.
Dust2prediction missed13:9
Marsborne 37%Chicken Coop 63%
The model gave 63% on Chicken Coop — the map was taken by Marsborne.
Model check result
Model favoriteChicken Coop · 52%
Series resultMarsborne 2:0
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by map0 of 2