ESL Challenger League Season 52 North America Cup 1 · BO3
result vs prediction
EMPIRE#176 in the world · win 2:1series probability
61%39%
probability at match start · final 2:1
Iowa Stormboar#162 in the world · loss 1:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
NukeIowa Stormboar pick
50%50%
EMPIRE · 2 mapsnearly even +0%Iowa Stormboar · 8 maps
InfernoIowa Stormboar ban
43%38%
EMPIRE · 3 mapsedge EMPIRE +5%Iowa Stormboar · 4 maps
Dust2EMPIRE pick
50%50%
EMPIRE · 2 mapsnearly even +0%Iowa Stormboar · 4 maps
MirageEMPIRE ban
50%44%
EMPIRE · 0 mapsedge EMPIRE +6%Iowa Stormboar · 5 maps
AncientEMPIRE ban
60%71%
EMPIRE · 1 mapedge Iowa Stormboar +11%Iowa Stormboar · 3 maps
AnubisIowa Stormboar ban
50%50%
EMPIRE · 0 mapsnearly even +0%Iowa Stormboar · 2 maps
Most likely veto scenario
1. BanEMPIRE remove Mirage
2. BanIowa Stormboar remove Inferno
3. PickEMPIRE take Dust2
4. PickIowa Stormboar take Nuke
5. BanIowa Stormboar remove Anubis
6. BanEMPIRE remove Ancient
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Cacheprediction missed4:13
EMPIRE 53%Iowa Stormboar 47%
The model gave 53% on EMPIRE — the map was taken by Iowa Stormboar.
Nukeprediction missed13:8
EMPIRE 47%Iowa Stormboar 53%
The model gave 53% on Iowa Stormboar — the map was taken by EMPIRE.
Infernoprediction correct13:10
EMPIRE 56%Iowa Stormboar 44%
The model gave 56% on EMPIRE — the map was taken by EMPIRE.
Model check result
Model favoriteEMPIRE · 61%
Series resultEMPIRE 2:1
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by map1 of 3