ESL Challenger League Season 52 Oceania Cup 1 · BO3
result vs prediction
Arcade#198 in the world · win 2:1series probability
34%66%
probability at match start · final 2:1
Mindfreak#213 in the world · loss 1:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
InfernoArcade pick
57%50%
Arcade · 3 mapsedge Arcade +7%Mindfreak · 12 maps
MirageArcade ban
44%60%
Arcade · 5 mapsedge Mindfreak +16%Mindfreak · 6 maps
NukeMindfreak pick
38%45%
Arcade · 4 mapsedge Mindfreak +7%Mindfreak · 7 maps
AnubisArcade ban
50%33%
Arcade · 0 mapsedge Arcade +17%Mindfreak · 5 maps
Dust2Mindfreak ban
43%40%
Arcade · 3 mapsnearly even +3%Mindfreak · 1 map
CacheMindfreak ban
50%50%
Arcade · 2 mapsnearly even +0%Mindfreak · 0 maps
Most likely veto scenario
1. BanArcade remove Anubis
2. BanMindfreak remove Dust2
3. PickArcade take Inferno
4. PickMindfreak take Nuke
5. BanMindfreak remove Cache
6. BanArcade remove Mirage
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Nukeprediction missed13:9
Arcade 45%Mindfreak 55%
The model gave 55% on Mindfreak — the map was taken by Arcade.
Mirageprediction correct11:13
Arcade 32%Mindfreak 68%
The model gave 68% on Mindfreak — the map was taken by Mindfreak.
Infernoprediction correct13:8
Arcade 57%Mindfreak 43%
The model gave 57% on Arcade — the map was taken by Arcade.
Model check result
Model favoriteMindfreak · 66%
Series resultArcade 2:1
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by map2 of 3