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ESL Challenger League Season 52 Asia-Pacific Cup 1 · BO3
result vs prediction
Alter Ego#120 in the world · win 2:1
series probability
53%47%
probability at match start · final 2:1
The Huns#123 in the world · loss 1:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
Dust2Alter Ego pick
70%47%
Alter Ego · 6 mapsedge Alter Ego +23%The Huns · 11 maps
NukeThe Huns pick
50%60%
Alter Ego · 2 mapsedge The Huns +10%The Huns · 11 maps
AncientAlter Ego ban
63%64%
Alter Ego · 4 mapsnearly even -1%The Huns · 7 maps
InfernoThe Huns ban
57%33%
Alter Ego · 3 mapsedge Alter Ego +24%The Huns · 5 maps
Miragepossible decider
57%38%
Alter Ego · 3 mapsedge Alter Ego +19%The Huns · 4 maps
CacheAlter Ego ban
60%57%
Alter Ego · 1 mapnearly even +3%The Huns · 3 maps
AnubisThe Huns ban
40%50%
Alter Ego · 1 mapedge The Huns +10%The Huns · 0 maps
Most likely veto scenario
1. BanAlter Ego remove Cache
2. BanThe Huns remove Anubis
3. PickAlter Ego take Dust2
4. PickThe Huns take Nuke
5. BanThe Huns remove Inferno
6. BanAlter Ego remove Ancient
DeciderMirage (57% / 38%)
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Dust2prediction missed11:13
Alter Ego 75%The Huns 25%
The model gave 75% on Alter Ego — the map was taken by The Huns.
Ancientprediction missed13:7
Alter Ego 46%The Huns 54%
The model gave 54% on The Huns — the map was taken by Alter Ego.
Cacheprediction correct13:8
Alter Ego 53%The Huns 47%
The model gave 53% on Alter Ego — the map was taken by Alter Ego.
Model check result
Model favoriteAlter Ego · 53%
Series resultAlter Ego 2:1
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by map1 of 3