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ESL Challenger League Season 52 Asia-Pacific Cup 1 · BO3
result vs prediction
Just Swing#158 in the world · win 2:1
series probability
45%55%
probability at match start · final 2:1
Chinggis Warriors#116 in the world · loss 1:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
NukeChinggis Warriors pick
60%50%
Just Swing · 1 mapedge Just Swing +10%Chinggis Warriors · 6 maps
Dust2Just Swing ban
50%38%
Just Swing · 2 mapsedge Just Swing +12%Chinggis Warriors · 4 maps
Infernopossible decider
67%50%
Just Swing · 2 mapsedge Just Swing +17%Chinggis Warriors · 4 maps
AncientChinggis Warriors ban
33%33%
Just Swing · 2 mapsnearly even +0%Chinggis Warriors · 2 maps
CacheJust Swing pick
67%40%
Just Swing · 2 mapsedge Just Swing +27%Chinggis Warriors · 1 map
MirageJust Swing ban
50%50%
Just Swing · 0 mapsnearly even +0%Chinggis Warriors · 2 maps
AnubisChinggis Warriors ban
50%40%
Just Swing · 0 mapsedge Just Swing +10%Chinggis Warriors · 1 map
Most likely veto scenario
1. BanJust Swing remove Mirage
2. BanChinggis Warriors remove Anubis
3. PickJust Swing take Cache
4. PickChinggis Warriors take Nuke
5. BanChinggis Warriors remove Ancient
6. BanJust Swing remove Dust2
DeciderInferno (67% / 50%)
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Dust2prediction missed10:13
Just Swing 65%Chinggis Warriors 35%
The model gave 65% on Just Swing — the map was taken by Chinggis Warriors.
Nukeprediction correct13:6
Just Swing 57%Chinggis Warriors 43%
The model gave 57% on Just Swing — the map was taken by Just Swing.
Ancientprediction correct13:5
Just Swing 50%Chinggis Warriors 50%
The model gave 50% on Just Swing — the map was taken by Just Swing.
Model check result
Model favoriteChinggis Warriors · 55%
Series resultJust Swing 2:1
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by map2 of 3