ESL Challenger League Season 52 South America Cup 1 · BO3
result vs prediction
ShindeN#77 in the world · win 2:0series probability
44%56%
probability at match start · final 2:0
Isurus#186 in the world · loss 0:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
InfernoShindeN pick
64%60%
ShindeN · 7 mapsnearly even +4%Isurus · 11 maps
Dust2Isurus pick
63%69%
ShindeN · 4 mapsedge Isurus +6%Isurus · 12 maps
NukeShindeN ban
33%42%
ShindeN · 5 mapsedge Isurus +9%Isurus · 8 maps
AncientIsurus ban
60%20%
ShindeN · 6 mapsedge ShindeN +40%Isurus · 6 maps
MirageIsurus ban
50%50%
ShindeN · 4 mapsnearly even +0%Isurus · 8 maps
CacheShindeN ban
29%60%
ShindeN · 3 mapsedge Isurus +31%Isurus · 6 maps
Defaultpossible decider
50%67%
ShindeN · 0 mapsedge Isurus +17%Isurus · 2 maps
Most likely veto scenario
1. BanShindeN remove Cache
2. BanIsurus remove Ancient
3. PickShindeN take Inferno
4. PickIsurus take Dust2
5. BanIsurus remove Mirage
6. BanShindeN remove Nuke
DeciderDefault (50% / 67%)
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Infernoprediction correct13:11
ShindeN 51%Isurus 49%
The model gave 51% on ShindeN — the map was taken by ShindeN.
Nukeprediction missed19:17
ShindeN 44%Isurus 56%
The model gave 56% on Isurus — the map was taken by ShindeN.
Model check result
Model favoriteIsurus · 56%
Series resultShindeN 2:0
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by map1 of 2