ESL Challenger League Season 52 North America Cup 1 · BO3
result vs prediction
EMPIREloss 0:2series probability
46%54%
probability at match start · final 0:2
Overtake Sector#168 in the world · win 2:0The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
InfernoOvertake Sector ban
50%33%
EMPIRE · 4 mapsedge EMPIRE +17%Overtake Sector · 5 maps
AncientEMPIRE ban
60%36%
EMPIRE · 1 mapedge EMPIRE +24%Overtake Sector · 7 maps
Dust2EMPIRE pick
50%60%
EMPIRE · 2 mapsedge Overtake Sector +10%Overtake Sector · 6 maps
MirageEMPIRE ban
50%58%
EMPIRE · 0 mapsedge Overtake Sector +8%Overtake Sector · 8 maps
Anubispossible decider
50%57%
EMPIRE · 0 mapsedge Overtake Sector +7%Overtake Sector · 3 maps
NukeOvertake Sector ban
57%50%
EMPIRE · 3 mapsedge EMPIRE +7%Overtake Sector · 0 maps
CacheOvertake Sector pick
40%60%
EMPIRE · 1 mapedge Overtake Sector +20%Overtake Sector · 1 map
Most likely veto scenario
1. BanEMPIRE remove Mirage
2. BanOvertake Sector remove Nuke
3. PickEMPIRE take Dust2
4. PickOvertake Sector take Cache
5. BanOvertake Sector remove Inferno
6. BanEMPIRE remove Ancient
DeciderAnubis (50% / 57%)
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Mirageprediction correct7:13
EMPIRE 39%Overtake Sector 61%
The model gave 61% on Overtake Sector — the map was taken by Overtake Sector.
Infernoprediction missed9:13
EMPIRE 69%Overtake Sector 31%
The model gave 69% on EMPIRE — the map was taken by Overtake Sector.
Model check result
Model favoriteOvertake Sector · 54%
Series resultOvertake Sector 0:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by map1 of 2