ESL Challenger League Season 52 North America Cup 1 · BO3
result vs prediction
Zomblersloss 0:2series probability
43%57%
probability at match start · final 0:2
Chicken Coop#188 in the world · win 2:0The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
InfernoZomblers pick
67%62%
Zomblers · 2 mapsedge Zomblers +5%Chicken Coop · 9 maps
Dust2Chicken Coop ban
50%55%
Zomblers · 2 mapsedge Chicken Coop +5%Chicken Coop · 7 maps
AncientZomblers ban
50%67%
Zomblers · 0 mapsedge Chicken Coop +17%Chicken Coop · 5 maps
NukeZomblers ban
50%57%
Zomblers · 2 mapsedge Chicken Coop +7%Chicken Coop · 3 maps
OverpassChicken Coop pick
50%67%
Zomblers · 0 mapsedge Chicken Coop +17%Chicken Coop · 5 maps
Defaultpossible decider
60%67%
Zomblers · 1 mapedge Chicken Coop +7%Chicken Coop · 2 maps
MirageChicken Coop ban
60%60%
Zomblers · 1 mapnearly even +0%Chicken Coop · 1 map
Most likely veto scenario
1. BanZomblers remove Ancient
2. BanChicken Coop remove Mirage
3. PickZomblers take Inferno
4. PickChicken Coop take Overpass
5. BanChicken Coop remove Dust2
6. BanZomblers remove Nuke
DeciderDefault (60% / 67%)
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Infernoprediction missed5:13
Zomblers 58%Chicken Coop 42%
The model gave 58% on Zomblers — the map was taken by Chicken Coop.
Nukeprediction correct9:13
Zomblers 40%Chicken Coop 60%
The model gave 60% on Chicken Coop — the map was taken by Chicken Coop.
Model check result
Model favoriteChicken Coop · 57%
Series resultChicken Coop 0:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by map1 of 2