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ESL Challenger League Season 52 Oceania Cup 1 · BO3
result vs prediction
THUNDER dOWNUNDER#128 in the world · win 2:1
series probability
63%37%
probability at match start · final 2:1
Ground Zero#139 in the world · loss 1:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
Dust2possible decider
50%50%
THUNDER dOWNUNDER · 4 mapsnearly even +0%Ground Zero · 14 maps
AnubisTHUNDER dOWNUNDER pick
56%54%
THUNDER dOWNUNDER · 5 mapsnearly even +2%Ground Zero · 9 maps
NukeGround Zero pick
43%80%
THUNDER dOWNUNDER · 3 mapsedge Ground Zero +37%Ground Zero · 11 maps
InfernoGround Zero ban
56%57%
THUNDER dOWNUNDER · 5 mapsnearly even -1%Ground Zero · 3 maps
MirageTHUNDER dOWNUNDER ban
50%60%
THUNDER dOWNUNDER · 0 mapsedge Ground Zero +10%Ground Zero · 6 maps
AncientGround Zero ban
50%57%
THUNDER dOWNUNDER · 0 mapsedge Ground Zero +7%Ground Zero · 3 maps
DefaultTHUNDER dOWNUNDER ban
50%60%
THUNDER dOWNUNDER · 0 mapsedge Ground Zero +10%Ground Zero · 1 map
Most likely veto scenario
1. BanTHUNDER dOWNUNDER remove Mirage
2. BanGround Zero remove Ancient
3. PickTHUNDER dOWNUNDER take Anubis
4. PickGround Zero take Nuke
5. BanGround Zero remove Inferno
6. BanTHUNDER dOWNUNDER remove Default
DeciderDust2 (50% / 50%)
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Nukeprediction missed13:5
THUNDER dOWNUNDER 14%Ground Zero 86%
The model gave 86% on Ground Zero — the map was taken by THUNDER dOWNUNDER.
Infernoprediction missed11:13
THUNDER dOWNUNDER 51%Ground Zero 49%
The model gave 51% on THUNDER dOWNUNDER — the map was taken by Ground Zero.
Anubisprediction correct13:3
THUNDER dOWNUNDER 52%Ground Zero 48%
The model gave 52% on THUNDER dOWNUNDER — the map was taken by THUNDER dOWNUNDER.
Model check result
Model favoriteTHUNDER dOWNUNDER · 63%
Series resultTHUNDER dOWNUNDER 2:1
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by map1 of 3