ESL Challenger League Season 52 Asia-Pacific Cup 1 · BO3
result vs prediction
NEXVOID#102 in the world · win 2:0series probability
40%60%
probability at match start · final 2:0
Rare Atom#105 in the world · loss 0:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
AncientRare Atom ban
82%57%
NEXVOID · 7 mapsedge NEXVOID +25%Rare Atom · 3 maps
InfernoNEXVOID pick
67%50%
NEXVOID · 8 mapsedge NEXVOID +17%Rare Atom · 2 maps
Dust2NEXVOID ban
29%63%
NEXVOID · 3 mapsedge Rare Atom +34%Rare Atom · 4 maps
CacheRare Atom pick
40%67%
NEXVOID · 1 mapedge Rare Atom +27%Rare Atom · 5 maps
NukeRare Atom ban
43%50%
NEXVOID · 3 mapsedge Rare Atom +7%Rare Atom · 0 maps
Anubispossible decider
60%60%
NEXVOID · 1 mapnearly even +0%Rare Atom · 1 map
MirageNEXVOID ban
50%67%
NEXVOID · 0 mapsedge Rare Atom +17%Rare Atom · 2 maps
Most likely veto scenario
1. BanNEXVOID remove Mirage
2. BanRare Atom remove Nuke
3. PickNEXVOID take Inferno
4. PickRare Atom take Cache
5. BanRare Atom remove Ancient
6. BanNEXVOID remove Dust2
DeciderAnubis (60% / 60%)
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Dust2prediction missed13:8
NEXVOID 18%Rare Atom 82%
The model gave 82% on Rare Atom — the map was taken by NEXVOID.
Ancientprediction correct13:4
NEXVOID 79%Rare Atom 21%
The model gave 79% on NEXVOID — the map was taken by NEXVOID.
Model check result
Model favoriteRare Atom · 60%
Series resultNEXVOID 2:0
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by map1 of 2