ESL Challenger League Season 52 South America Cup 1 · BO3
result vs prediction
Galorys#68 in the world · win 2:0series probability
21%79%
probability at match start · final 2:0
Imperial#51 in the world · loss 0:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
InfernoImperial pick
33%68%
Galorys · 2 mapsedge Imperial +35%Imperial · 15 maps
MirageGalorys ban
50%67%
Galorys · 0 mapsedge Imperial +17%Imperial · 17 maps
Nukepossible decider
75%71%
Galorys · 4 mapsnearly even +4%Imperial · 13 maps
Dust2Imperial ban
40%58%
Galorys · 6 mapsedge Imperial +18%Imperial · 8 maps
CacheGalorys ban
50%67%
Galorys · 2 mapsedge Imperial +17%Imperial · 8 maps
AncientImperial ban
77%50%
Galorys · 9 mapsedge Galorys +27%Imperial · 0 maps
AnubisGalorys pick
60%57%
Galorys · 6 mapsnearly even +3%Imperial · 3 maps
Most likely veto scenario
1. BanGalorys remove Mirage
2. BanImperial remove Ancient
3. PickGalorys take Anubis
4. PickImperial take Inferno
5. BanImperial remove Dust2
6. BanGalorys remove Cache
DeciderNuke (75% / 71%)
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Anubisprediction correct13:4
Galorys 56%Imperial 44%
The model gave 56% on Galorys — the map was taken by Galorys.
Infernoprediction missed13:6
Galorys 17%Imperial 83%
The model gave 83% on Imperial — the map was taken by Galorys.
Model check result
Model favoriteImperial · 79%
Series resultGalorys 2:0
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by map1 of 2