ESL Challenger League Season 52 North America Cup 1 · BO3
result vs prediction
Overtake Sector#143 in the world · loss 0:2series probability
29%71%
probability at match start · final 0:2
Marsborne#82 in the world · win 2:0The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
AncientOvertake Sector ban
36%75%
Overtake Sector · 7 mapsedge Marsborne +39%Marsborne · 8 maps
MirageOvertake Sector pick
64%63%
Overtake Sector · 10 mapsnearly even +1%Marsborne · 4 maps
InfernoMarsborne pick
45%67%
Overtake Sector · 7 mapsedge Marsborne +22%Marsborne · 5 maps
Dust2Marsborne ban
60%50%
Overtake Sector · 6 mapsedge Overtake Sector +10%Marsborne · 4 maps
AnubisOvertake Sector ban
57%57%
Overtake Sector · 3 mapsnearly even +0%Marsborne · 3 maps
Overpasspossible decider
50%50%
Overtake Sector · 2 mapsnearly even +0%Marsborne · 2 maps
CacheMarsborne ban
60%40%
Overtake Sector · 1 mapedge Overtake Sector +20%Marsborne · 1 map
Most likely veto scenario
1. BanOvertake Sector remove Ancient
2. BanMarsborne remove Cache
3. PickOvertake Sector take Mirage
4. PickMarsborne take Inferno
5. BanMarsborne remove Dust2
6. BanOvertake Sector remove Anubis
DeciderOverpass (50% / 50%)
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Dust2prediction missed8:13
Overtake Sector 63%Marsborne 37%
The model gave 63% on Overtake Sector — the map was taken by Marsborne.
Infernoprediction correct9:13
Overtake Sector 27%Marsborne 73%
The model gave 73% on Marsborne — the map was taken by Marsborne.
Model check result
Model favoriteMarsborne · 71%
Series resultMarsborne 0:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by map1 of 2