CCT 2026 Europe Series 1 · BO3
result vs prediction
MOUZ NXT#146 in the world · loss 1:2series probability
33%67%
probability at match start · final 1:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
MirageMOUZ NXT pick
33%62%
MOUZ NXT · 2 mapsedge Lavked +29%Lavked · 9 maps
Dust2MOUZ NXT ban
50%55%
MOUZ NXT · 2 mapsedge Lavked +5%Lavked · 7 maps
NukeLavked pick
40%58%
MOUZ NXT · 1 mapedge Lavked +18%Lavked · 8 maps
Ancientpossible decider
60%67%
MOUZ NXT · 1 mapedge Lavked +7%Lavked · 5 maps
InfernoMOUZ NXT ban
50%44%
MOUZ NXT · 0 mapsedge MOUZ NXT +6%Lavked · 5 maps
DefaultLavked ban
60%50%
MOUZ NXT · 1 mapedge MOUZ NXT +10%Lavked · 0 maps
OverpassLavked ban
50%60%
MOUZ NXT · 0 mapsedge Lavked +10%Lavked · 1 map
Most likely veto scenario
1. BanMOUZ NXT remove Inferno
2. BanLavked remove Default
3. PickMOUZ NXT take Mirage
4. PickLavked take Nuke
5. BanLavked remove Overpass
6. BanMOUZ NXT remove Dust2
DeciderAncient (60% / 67%)
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Mirageprediction correct11:13
MOUZ NXT 22%Lavked 78%
The model gave 78% on Lavked — the map was taken by Lavked.
Dust2prediction missed13:11
MOUZ NXT 48%Lavked 52%
The model gave 52% on Lavked — the map was taken by MOUZ NXT.
Ancientprediction correct7:13
MOUZ NXT 43%Lavked 57%
The model gave 57% on Lavked — the map was taken by Lavked.
Model check result
Model favoriteLavked · 67%
Series resultLavked 1:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by map2 of 3