CCT 2026 Europe Series 1 · BO3
result vs prediction
MOUZ NXT#139 in the world · loss 1:2series probability
53%47%
probability at match start · final 1:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
MirageLavked pick
50%43%
MOUZ NXT · 0 mapsedge MOUZ NXT +7%Lavked · 3 maps
AncientLavked ban
50%40%
MOUZ NXT · 0 mapsedge MOUZ NXT +10%Lavked · 1 map
DefaultMOUZ NXT pick
60%50%
MOUZ NXT · 1 mapedge MOUZ NXT +10%Lavked · 0 maps
Dust2MOUZ NXT ban
50%60%
MOUZ NXT · 0 mapsedge Lavked +10%Lavked · 1 map
InfernoLavked ban
50%40%
MOUZ NXT · 0 mapsedge MOUZ NXT +10%Lavked · 1 map
NukeMOUZ NXT ban
50%40%
MOUZ NXT · 0 mapsedge MOUZ NXT +10%Lavked · 1 map
Most likely veto scenario
1. BanMOUZ NXT remove Dust2
2. BanLavked remove Ancient
3. PickMOUZ NXT take Default
4. PickLavked take Mirage
5. BanLavked remove Inferno
6. BanMOUZ NXT remove Nuke
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Mirageprediction missed11:13
MOUZ NXT 54%Lavked 46%
The model gave 54% on MOUZ NXT — the map was taken by Lavked.
Dust2prediction missed13:11
MOUZ NXT 43%Lavked 57%
The model gave 57% on Lavked — the map was taken by MOUZ NXT.
Ancientprediction missed7:13
MOUZ NXT 60%Lavked 40%
The model gave 60% on MOUZ NXT — the map was taken by Lavked.
Model check result
Model favoriteMOUZ NXT · 53%
Series resultLavked 1:2
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by map0 of 3