CCT 2026 Europe Series 1 · BO3
result vs prediction
TNC#147 in the world · win 2:0series probability
32%68%
probability at match start · final 2:0
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
MirageLavked pick
43%64%
TNC · 3 mapsedge Lavked +21%Lavked · 7 maps
Nukepossible decider
57%55%
TNC · 3 mapsnearly even +2%Lavked · 7 maps
AncientTNC pick
63%75%
TNC · 4 mapsedge Lavked +12%Lavked · 4 maps
Dust2TNC ban
40%44%
TNC · 1 mapnearly even -4%Lavked · 5 maps
AnubisLavked ban
57%50%
TNC · 3 mapsedge TNC +7%Lavked · 0 maps
InfernoLavked ban
50%57%
TNC · 0 mapsedge Lavked +7%Lavked · 3 maps
OverpassTNC ban
40%60%
TNC · 1 mapedge Lavked +20%Lavked · 1 map
Most likely veto scenario
1. BanTNC remove Overpass
2. BanLavked remove Anubis
3. PickTNC take Ancient
4. PickLavked take Mirage
5. BanLavked remove Inferno
6. BanTNC remove Dust2
DeciderNuke (57% / 55%)
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Mirageprediction missed16:14
TNC 28%Lavked 72%
The model gave 72% on Lavked — the map was taken by TNC.
Ancientprediction missed13:8
TNC 39%Lavked 61%
The model gave 61% on Lavked — the map was taken by TNC.
Model check result
Model favoriteLavked · 68%
Series resultTNC 2:0
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by map0 of 2