BC Game Masters Europe Season 2 Series 1 · BO3
result vs prediction
Walczaki#149 in the world · win 2:0series probability
53%47%
probability at match start · final 2:0
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
NukeWalczaki pick
73%60%
Walczaki · 7 mapsedge Walczaki +13%Lavked · 6 maps
Ancientpossible decider
67%75%
Walczaki · 5 mapsedge Lavked +8%Lavked · 4 maps
MirageWalczaki ban
50%70%
Walczaki · 2 mapsedge Lavked +20%Lavked · 6 maps
Dust2Walczaki ban
60%44%
Walczaki · 1 mapedge Walczaki +16%Lavked · 5 maps
InfernoLavked ban
67%57%
Walczaki · 2 mapsedge Walczaki +10%Lavked · 3 maps
AnubisLavked ban
63%50%
Walczaki · 4 mapsedge Walczaki +13%Lavked · 0 maps
DefaultLavked pick
57%50%
Walczaki · 3 mapsedge Walczaki +7%Lavked · 0 maps
Most likely veto scenario
1. BanWalczaki remove Mirage
2. BanLavked remove Anubis
3. PickWalczaki take Nuke
4. PickLavked take Default
5. BanLavked remove Inferno
6. BanWalczaki remove Dust2
DeciderAncient (67% / 75%)
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Mirageprediction missed13:11
Walczaki 28%Lavked 72%
The model gave 72% on Lavked — the map was taken by Walczaki.
Nukeprediction correct16:12
Walczaki 67%Lavked 33%
The model gave 67% on Walczaki — the map was taken by Walczaki.
Model check result
Model favoriteWalczaki · 53%
Series resultWalczaki 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by map1 of 2