BC Game Masters Europe Season 2 Series 1 · BO3
result vs prediction
AaB#75 in the world · win 2:1series probability
48%52%
probability at match start · final 2:1
GenOne#147 in the world · loss 1:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
Dust2AaB ban
50%60%
AaB · 0 mapsedge GenOne +10%GenOne · 1 map
OverpassGenOne ban
50%60%
AaB · 0 mapsedge GenOne +10%GenOne · 1 map
Most likely veto scenario
1. BanAaB remove Dust2
2. BanGenOne remove Overpass
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Nukeprediction correct13:16
AaB 47%GenOne 53%
The model gave 53% on GenOne — the map was taken by GenOne.
Overpassprediction missed13:6
AaB 43%GenOne 57%
The model gave 57% on GenOne — the map was taken by AaB.
Ancientprediction correct13:6
AaB 50%GenOne 50%
The model gave 50% on AaB — the map was taken by AaB.
Model check result
Model favoriteGenOne · 52%
Series resultAaB 2:1
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by map2 of 3