NODWIN Clutch Series 8 Closed Qualifier · BO3
result vs prediction
HYPERSPIRIT#147 in the world · loss 1:2series probability
50%50%
probability at match start · final 1:2
RBLS#93 in the world · win 2:1The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
NukeRBLS pick
33%56%
HYPERSPIRIT · 2 mapsedge RBLS +23%RBLS · 5 maps
Dust2RBLS ban
38%50%
HYPERSPIRIT · 4 mapsedge RBLS +12%RBLS · 2 maps
AnubisHYPERSPIRIT ban
25%50%
HYPERSPIRIT · 4 mapsedge RBLS +25%RBLS · 0 maps
MirageRBLS ban
38%50%
HYPERSPIRIT · 4 mapsedge RBLS +12%RBLS · 0 maps
Overpasspossible decider
40%33%
HYPERSPIRIT · 1 mapedge HYPERSPIRIT +7%RBLS · 2 maps
AncientHYPERSPIRIT pick
60%40%
HYPERSPIRIT · 1 mapedge HYPERSPIRIT +20%RBLS · 1 map
InfernoHYPERSPIRIT ban
50%67%
HYPERSPIRIT · 0 mapsedge RBLS +17%RBLS · 2 maps
Most likely veto scenario
1. BanHYPERSPIRIT remove Inferno
2. BanRBLS remove Mirage
3. PickHYPERSPIRIT take Ancient
4. PickRBLS take Nuke
5. BanRBLS remove Dust2
6. BanHYPERSPIRIT remove Anubis
DeciderOverpass (40% / 33%)
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Anubisprediction missed16:13
HYPERSPIRIT 27%RBLS 73%
The model gave 73% on RBLS — the map was taken by HYPERSPIRIT.
Nukeprediction correct3:13
HYPERSPIRIT 26%RBLS 74%
The model gave 74% on RBLS — the map was taken by RBLS.
Dust2prediction correct8:13
HYPERSPIRIT 38%RBLS 62%
The model gave 63% on RBLS — the map was taken by RBLS.
Model check result
Model favoriteRBLS · 50%
Series resultRBLS 1:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by map2 of 3