DFRAG Open Series 6 · BO3
result vs prediction
Finishers#192 in the world · loss 1:2series probability
34%66%
probability at match start · final 1:2
Mindfreak#213 in the world · win 2:1The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
InfernoMindfreak pick
50%50%
Finishers · 0 mapsnearly even +0%Mindfreak · 6 maps
NukeFinishers ban
50%50%
Finishers · 0 mapsnearly even +0%Mindfreak · 4 maps
AnubisMindfreak ban
40%50%
Finishers · 1 mapedge Mindfreak +10%Mindfreak · 2 maps
MirageFinishers pick
50%33%
Finishers · 0 mapsedge Finishers +17%Mindfreak · 2 maps
Dust2Mindfreak ban
40%50%
Finishers · 1 mapedge Mindfreak +10%Mindfreak · 0 maps
Most likely veto scenario
1. BanFinishers remove Nuke
2. BanMindfreak remove Dust2
3. PickFinishers take Mirage
4. PickMindfreak take Inferno
5. BanMindfreak remove Anubis
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Mirageprediction missed4:13
Finishers 69%Mindfreak 31%
The model gave 69% on Finishers — the map was taken by Mindfreak.
Nukeprediction missed13:10
Finishers 47%Mindfreak 53%
The model gave 53% on Mindfreak — the map was taken by Finishers.
Infernoprediction missed13:16
Finishers 50%Mindfreak 50%
The model gave 50% on Finishers — the map was taken by Mindfreak.
Model check result
Model favoriteMindfreak · 66%
Series resultMindfreak 1:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by map0 of 3