Stake Pulse Beat I · BO3
result vs prediction
Acend#125 in the world · loss 0:2series probability
54%46%
probability at match start · final 0:2
Betclic#65 in the world · win 2:0The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
MirageAcend pick
58%45%
Acend · 20 mapsedge Acend +13%Betclic · 7 maps
Dust2possible decider
53%36%
Acend · 15 mapsedge Acend +17%Betclic · 7 maps
AncientAcend ban
47%55%
Acend · 13 mapsedge Betclic +8%Betclic · 7 maps
NukeAcend ban
50%40%
Acend · 0 mapsedge Acend +10%Betclic · 16 maps
OverpassBetclic ban
36%30%
Acend · 10 mapsedge Acend +6%Betclic · 6 maps
AnubisBetclic pick
67%65%
Acend · 2 mapsnearly even +2%Betclic · 13 maps
InfernoBetclic ban
57%29%
Acend · 10 mapsedge Acend +28%Betclic · 3 maps
Most likely veto scenario
1. BanAcend remove Nuke
2. BanBetclic remove Inferno
3. PickAcend take Mirage
4. PickBetclic take Anubis
5. BanBetclic remove Overpass
6. BanAcend remove Ancient
DeciderDust2 (53% / 36%)
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Cacheprediction correct5:13
Acend 47%Betclic 53%
The model gave 53% on Betclic — the map was taken by Betclic.
Mirageprediction missed7:13
Acend 65%Betclic 35%
The model gave 65% on Acend — the map was taken by Betclic.
Model check result
Model favoriteAcend · 54%
Series resultBetclic 0:2
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by map1 of 2