Stake Pulse Beat I · BO3
result vs prediction
G2 Ares#130 in the world · loss 0:2series probability
41%59%
probability at match start · final 0:2
Johnny Speeds#73 in the world · win 2:0The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
InfernoG2 Ares pick
55%71%
G2 Ares · 18 mapsedge Johnny Speeds +16%Johnny Speeds · 10 maps
Dust2Johnny Speeds ban
48%46%
G2 Ares · 17 mapsnearly even +2%Johnny Speeds · 9 maps
MirageJohnny Speeds ban
60%33%
G2 Ares · 16 mapsedge G2 Ares +27%Johnny Speeds · 8 maps
AncientG2 Ares ban
44%55%
G2 Ares · 12 mapsedge Johnny Speeds +11%Johnny Speeds · 7 maps
OverpassJohnny Speeds pick
46%60%
G2 Ares · 9 mapsedge Johnny Speeds +14%Johnny Speeds · 6 maps
AnubisG2 Ares ban
50%50%
G2 Ares · 4 mapsnearly even +0%Johnny Speeds · 6 maps
Cachepossible decider
50%50%
G2 Ares · 2 mapsnearly even +0%Johnny Speeds · 0 maps
Most likely veto scenario
1. BanG2 Ares remove Anubis
2. BanJohnny Speeds remove Mirage
3. PickG2 Ares take Inferno
4. PickJohnny Speeds take Overpass
5. BanJohnny Speeds remove Dust2
6. BanG2 Ares remove Ancient
DeciderCache (50% / 50%)
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Dust2prediction correct8:13
G2 Ares 48%Johnny Speeds 52%
The model gave 52% on Johnny Speeds — the map was taken by Johnny Speeds.
Infernoprediction correct1:13
G2 Ares 35%Johnny Speeds 65%
The model gave 65% on Johnny Speeds — the map was taken by Johnny Speeds.
Model check result
Model favoriteJohnny Speeds · 59%
Series resultJohnny Speeds 0:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by map2 of 2