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BetBoom Storm Season 4 · BO3
result vs prediction
Grêmio#201 in the world · win 2:1
series probability
39%61%
probability at match start · final 2:1
paiN Academy#286 in the world · loss 1:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
Dust2possible decider
57%41%
Grêmio · 3 mapsedge Grêmio +16%paiN Academy · 13 maps
MirageGrêmio ban
40%35%
Grêmio · 1 mapedge Grêmio +5%paiN Academy · 13 maps
NukepaiN Academy ban
50%42%
Grêmio · 2 mapsedge Grêmio +8%paiN Academy · 8 maps
AnubisGrêmio ban
50%55%
Grêmio · 0 mapsedge paiN Academy +5%paiN Academy · 7 maps
InfernoGrêmio pick
60%56%
Grêmio · 1 mapnearly even +4%paiN Academy · 5 maps
CachepaiN Academy ban
33%43%
Grêmio · 2 mapsedge paiN Academy +10%paiN Academy · 3 maps
DefaultpaiN Academy pick
60%75%
Grêmio · 1 mapedge paiN Academy +15%paiN Academy · 4 maps
Most likely veto scenario
1. BanGrêmio remove Anubis
2. BanpaiN Academy remove Nuke
3. PickGrêmio take Inferno
4. PickpaiN Academy take Default
5. BanpaiN Academy remove Cache
6. BanGrêmio remove Mirage
DeciderDust2 (57% / 41%)
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Infernoprediction correct22:18
Grêmio 58%paiN Academy 42%
The model gave 58% on Grêmio — the map was taken by Grêmio.
Mirageprediction missed7:13
Grêmio 52%paiN Academy 48%
The model gave 52% on Grêmio — the map was taken by paiN Academy.
Cacheprediction missed13:10
Grêmio 40%paiN Academy 60%
The model gave 60% on paiN Academy — the map was taken by Grêmio.
Model check result
Model favoritepaiN Academy · 61%
Series resultGrêmio 2:1
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by map1 of 3