ESL Challenger League Season 52 Europe Cup 2 · BO3
result vs predictionseries probability
46%54%
probability at match start · final 2:1
MOUZ NXT#146 in the world · loss 1:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
Dust2ex-MANA pick
42%50%
ex-MANA · 15 mapsedge MOUZ NXT +8%MOUZ NXT · 10 maps
MirageMOUZ NXT ban
67%28%
ex-MANA · 5 mapsedge ex-MANA +39%MOUZ NXT · 14 maps
NukeMOUZ NXT pick
33%50%
ex-MANA · 5 mapsedge MOUZ NXT +17%MOUZ NXT · 8 maps
Ancientpossible decider
45%57%
ex-MANA · 7 mapsedge MOUZ NXT +12%MOUZ NXT · 3 maps
AnubisMOUZ NXT ban
38%43%
ex-MANA · 4 mapsedge MOUZ NXT +5%MOUZ NXT · 3 maps
Cacheex-MANA ban
50%63%
ex-MANA · 0 mapsedge MOUZ NXT +13%MOUZ NXT · 4 maps
Defaultex-MANA ban
40%67%
ex-MANA · 1 mapedge MOUZ NXT +27%MOUZ NXT · 2 maps
Most likely veto scenario
1. Banex-MANA remove Cache
2. BanMOUZ NXT remove Mirage
3. Pickex-MANA take Dust2
4. PickMOUZ NXT take Nuke
5. BanMOUZ NXT remove Anubis
6. Banex-MANA remove Default
DeciderAncient (45% / 57%)
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Nukeprediction correct7:13
ex-MANA 31%MOUZ NXT 69%
The model gave 69% on MOUZ NXT — the map was taken by MOUZ NXT.
Dust2prediction missed13:11
ex-MANA 45%MOUZ NXT 55%
The model gave 55% on MOUZ NXT — the map was taken by ex-MANA.
Mirageprediction correct13:10
ex-MANA 84%MOUZ NXT 16%
The model gave 84% on ex-MANA — the map was taken by ex-MANA.
Model check result
Model favoriteMOUZ NXT · 54%
Series resultex-MANA 2:1
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by map2 of 3