Logitech G Play Connect 2026 Closed Qualifier · BO3
result vs prediction
BASEMENT BOYS#96 in the world · win 2:1series probability
48%52%
probability at match start · final 2:1
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
MirageLavked pick
57%41%
BASEMENT BOYS · 10 mapsedge BASEMENT BOYS +16%Lavked · 23 maps
NukeBASEMENT BOYS pick
56%44%
BASEMENT BOYS · 12 mapsedge BASEMENT BOYS +12%Lavked · 12 maps
AncientLavked ban
47%40%
BASEMENT BOYS · 11 mapsedge BASEMENT BOYS +7%Lavked · 11 maps
Dust2possible decider
50%53%
BASEMENT BOYS · 8 mapsnearly even -3%Lavked · 13 maps
AnubisBASEMENT BOYS ban
63%62%
BASEMENT BOYS · 4 mapsnearly even +1%Lavked · 9 maps
InfernoBASEMENT BOYS ban
38%43%
BASEMENT BOYS · 4 mapsedge Lavked +5%Lavked · 3 maps
CacheLavked ban
67%40%
BASEMENT BOYS · 5 mapsedge BASEMENT BOYS +27%Lavked · 1 map
Most likely veto scenario
1. BanBASEMENT BOYS remove Inferno
2. BanLavked remove Cache
3. PickBASEMENT BOYS take Nuke
4. PickLavked take Mirage
5. BanLavked remove Ancient
6. BanBASEMENT BOYS remove Anubis
DeciderDust2 (50% / 53%)
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Dust2prediction missed2:13
BASEMENT BOYS 50%Lavked 50%
The model gave 50% on BASEMENT BOYS — the map was taken by Lavked.
Ancientprediction correct13:7
BASEMENT BOYS 54%Lavked 46%
The model gave 54% on BASEMENT BOYS — the map was taken by BASEMENT BOYS.
Nukeprediction correct13:4
BASEMENT BOYS 62%Lavked 38%
The model gave 62% on BASEMENT BOYS — the map was taken by BASEMENT BOYS.
Model check result
Model favoriteLavked · 52%
Series resultBASEMENT BOYS 2:1
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by map2 of 3