CCT 2026 Europe Series 8 Closed Qualifier · BO3
result vs predictionseries probability
50%50%
probability at match start · final 2:0
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
MirageMai Tai pick
42%55%
Mai Tai · 15 mapsedge ex-MANA +13%ex-MANA · 16 maps
Dust2Mai Tai ban
38%50%
Mai Tai · 4 mapsedge ex-MANA +12%ex-MANA · 22 maps
Ancientex-MANA pick
42%47%
Mai Tai · 8 mapsedge ex-MANA +5%ex-MANA · 13 maps
Defaultpossible decider
40%40%
Mai Tai · 16 mapsnearly even +0%ex-MANA · 1 map
AnubisMai Tai ban
33%42%
Mai Tai · 5 mapsedge ex-MANA +9%ex-MANA · 8 maps
Nukeex-MANA ban
33%30%
Mai Tai · 5 mapsnearly even +3%ex-MANA · 6 maps
Cacheex-MANA ban
50%43%
Mai Tai · 4 mapsedge Mai Tai +7%ex-MANA · 3 maps
Most likely veto scenario
1. BanMai Tai remove Dust2
2. Banex-MANA remove Nuke
3. PickMai Tai take Mirage
4. Pickex-MANA take Ancient
5. Banex-MANA remove Cache
6. BanMai Tai remove Anubis
DeciderDefault (40% / 40%)
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Dust2prediction missed16:12
Mai Tai 35%ex-MANA 65%
The model gave 65% on ex-MANA — the map was taken by Mai Tai.
Ancientprediction missed13:10
Mai Tai 48%ex-MANA 52%
The model gave 52% on ex-MANA — the map was taken by Mai Tai.
Model check result
Model favoriteex-MANA · 50%
Series resultMai Tai 2:0
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by map0 of 2