CCT 2026 Europe Series 8 · BO3
result vs prediction
Black Phoenix#80 in the world · win 2:1series probability
62%38%
probability at match start · final 2:1
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
Dust2Black Phoenix pick
52%56%
Black Phoenix · 29 mapsnearly even -4%PsychoFace · 12 maps
MirageBlack Phoenix ban
45%50%
Black Phoenix · 18 mapsedge PsychoFace +5%PsychoFace · 10 maps
Nukepossible decider
53%36%
Black Phoenix · 15 mapsedge Black Phoenix +17%PsychoFace · 7 maps
InfernoPsychoFace ban
67%38%
Black Phoenix · 11 mapsedge Black Phoenix +29%PsychoFace · 4 maps
AnubisBlack Phoenix ban
13%50%
Black Phoenix · 12 mapsedge PsychoFace +37%PsychoFace · 2 maps
CachePsychoFace ban
64%50%
Black Phoenix · 10 mapsedge Black Phoenix +14%PsychoFace · 2 maps
DefaultPsychoFace pick
56%50%
Black Phoenix · 5 mapsedge Black Phoenix +6%PsychoFace · 0 maps
Most likely veto scenario
1. BanBlack Phoenix remove Anubis
2. BanPsychoFace remove Inferno
3. PickBlack Phoenix take Dust2
4. PickPsychoFace take Default
5. BanPsychoFace remove Cache
6. BanBlack Phoenix remove Mirage
DeciderNuke (53% / 36%)
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Dust2prediction missed13:2
Black Phoenix 48%PsychoFace 52%
The model gave 52% on PsychoFace — the map was taken by Black Phoenix.
Ancientprediction correct11:13
Black Phoenix 47%PsychoFace 53%
The model gave 53% on PsychoFace — the map was taken by PsychoFace.
Nukeprediction correct13:9
Black Phoenix 66%PsychoFace 34%
The model gave 66% on Black Phoenix — the map was taken by Black Phoenix.
Model check result
Model favoriteBlack Phoenix · 62%
Series resultBlack Phoenix 2:1
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by map2 of 3