ESL Challenger League Season 52 Europe Cup 2 · BO3
result vs prediction
BASEMENT BOYS#96 in the world · loss 0:2series probability
62%38%
probability at match start · final 0:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
Dust2ex-MANA pick
64%45%
BASEMENT BOYS · 10 mapsedge BASEMENT BOYS +19%ex-MANA · 16 maps
NukeBASEMENT BOYS pick
63%30%
BASEMENT BOYS · 12 mapsedge BASEMENT BOYS +33%ex-MANA · 6 maps
Ancientpossible decider
71%45%
BASEMENT BOYS · 10 mapsedge BASEMENT BOYS +26%ex-MANA · 7 maps
MirageBASEMENT BOYS ban
54%70%
BASEMENT BOYS · 9 mapsedge ex-MANA +16%ex-MANA · 6 maps
Anubisex-MANA ban
56%38%
BASEMENT BOYS · 5 mapsedge BASEMENT BOYS +18%ex-MANA · 4 maps
InfernoBASEMENT BOYS ban
40%33%
BASEMENT BOYS · 6 mapsedge BASEMENT BOYS +7%ex-MANA · 2 maps
Cacheex-MANA ban
50%50%
BASEMENT BOYS · 2 mapsnearly even +0%ex-MANA · 0 maps
Most likely veto scenario
1. BanBASEMENT BOYS remove Inferno
2. Banex-MANA remove Cache
3. PickBASEMENT BOYS take Nuke
4. Pickex-MANA take Dust2
5. Banex-MANA remove Anubis
6. BanBASEMENT BOYS remove Mirage
DeciderAncient (71% / 45%)
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Ancientprediction missed9:13
BASEMENT BOYS 77%ex-MANA 23%
The model gave 77% on BASEMENT BOYS — the map was taken by ex-MANA.
Dust2prediction missed10:13
BASEMENT BOYS 66%ex-MANA 34%
The model gave 66% on BASEMENT BOYS — the map was taken by ex-MANA.
Model check result
Model favoriteBASEMENT BOYS · 62%
Series resultex-MANA 0:2
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by map0 of 2