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Stake Pulse Beat I · BO3
result vs prediction
Johnny Speeds#73 in the world · win 2:1
series probability
35%65%
probability at match start · final 2:1
Metizport#52 in the world · loss 1:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
InfernoJohnny Speeds pick
71%50%
Johnny Speeds · 10 mapsedge Johnny Speeds +21%Metizport · 2 maps
MirageMetizport pick
36%56%
Johnny Speeds · 7 mapsedge Metizport +20%Metizport · 5 maps
Overpasspossible decider
60%56%
Johnny Speeds · 6 mapsnearly even +4%Metizport · 5 maps
Dust2Metizport ban
46%50%
Johnny Speeds · 9 mapsnearly even -4%Metizport · 0 maps
AnubisMetizport ban
50%50%
Johnny Speeds · 6 mapsnearly even +0%Metizport · 2 maps
AncientJohnny Speeds ban
50%60%
Johnny Speeds · 6 mapsedge Metizport +10%Metizport · 1 map
NukeJohnny Speeds ban
40%56%
Johnny Speeds · 1 mapedge Metizport +16%Metizport · 5 maps
Most likely veto scenario
1. BanJohnny Speeds remove Nuke
2. BanMetizport remove Dust2
3. PickJohnny Speeds take Inferno
4. PickMetizport take Mirage
5. BanMetizport remove Anubis
6. BanJohnny Speeds remove Ancient
DeciderOverpass (60% / 56%)
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Mirageprediction correct10:13
Johnny Speeds 34%Metizport 66%
The model gave 66% on Metizport — the map was taken by Metizport.
Nukeprediction missed13:10
Johnny Speeds 32%Metizport 68%
The model gave 68% on Metizport — the map was taken by Johnny Speeds.
Ancientprediction missed16:13
Johnny Speeds 40%Metizport 60%
The model gave 60% on Metizport — the map was taken by Johnny Speeds.
Model check result
Model favoriteMetizport · 65%
Series resultJohnny Speeds 2:1
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by map1 of 3