NODWIN Clutch Series 10 · BO3
result vs prediction
ARCRED#121 in the world · loss 1:2series probability
58%42%
probability at match start · final 1:2
Butterfly#127 in the world · win 2:1The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
MirageARCRED ban
40%70%
ARCRED · 6 mapsedge Butterfly +30%Butterfly · 6 maps
AnubisButterfly ban
75%40%
ARCRED · 8 mapsedge ARCRED +35%Butterfly · 1 map
Dust2ARCRED pick
70%57%
ARCRED · 6 mapsedge ARCRED +13%Butterfly · 3 maps
AncientButterfly pick
33%71%
ARCRED · 5 mapsedge Butterfly +38%Butterfly · 3 maps
NukeARCRED ban
43%67%
ARCRED · 3 mapsedge Butterfly +24%Butterfly · 5 maps
Defaultpossible decider
50%50%
ARCRED · 2 mapsnearly even +0%Butterfly · 2 maps
InfernoButterfly ban
60%29%
ARCRED · 1 mapedge ARCRED +31%Butterfly · 3 maps
Most likely veto scenario
1. BanARCRED remove Nuke
2. BanButterfly remove Anubis
3. PickARCRED take Dust2
4. PickButterfly take Ancient
5. BanButterfly remove Inferno
6. BanARCRED remove Mirage
DeciderDefault (50% / 50%)
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Ancientprediction correct5:13
ARCRED 15%Butterfly 85%
The model gave 85% on Butterfly — the map was taken by Butterfly.
Infernoprediction correct13:3
ARCRED 81%Butterfly 19%
The model gave 81% on ARCRED — the map was taken by ARCRED.
Dust2prediction missed9:13
ARCRED 64%Butterfly 36%
The model gave 64% on ARCRED — the map was taken by Butterfly.
Model check result
Model favoriteARCRED · 58%
Series resultButterfly 1:2
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by map2 of 3